missing 2

One of the formulas in the last post was missing a 2. Everything has now been recalculated. Some numbers changed. The basic result is that some of the numbers are not quite as dire as I had stated: the original example experiment, which had 15 participants per condition and an effect significant at p=.05 has a 51% chance of replicating (in the sense of producing another significant p-value when re-run exactly), again assuming the effect was real and the effect size is as measured in the first experiment.